Why did Yennefer go back to Aretuza without Ciri?

In the thrilling sixth episode of the third season of "The Witcher," Yennefer of Vengerberg makes a critical choice. Yennefer, having successfully fled Aretuza with Ciri, is faced with a sudden and potentially life-altering decision when she senses her mentor Tissaia de Vries preparing to use Alzur's Thunder, a deadly spell. Against Ciri's protests, Yennefer decides to leave her to return to Aretuza to save Tissaia, thereby impacting Ciri's safety. It's a perfect illustration of the decision-making process, much like a decision tree in the field of data science.

Data science may seem an unexpected analogy for analyzing the dynamics of a fantastical world filled with sorcery and monstrous creatures, but in truth, it provides a fascinating lens. Both data science and Witcher's universe involve the ability to make complex decisions under high-pressure, uncertain circumstances, leading to cascading effects.

A decision tree is a powerful tool used in data science that employs a tree-like graph to illustrate potential outcomes based on a series of decisions. The tree has a root that represents the initial decision, branches that represent the possible choices and outcomes, and leaves which signify the final outcomes.

In Yennefer's situation, the decision tree’s root is the moment when she senses Tissaia's magic, leading to the crucial decision: should she stay with Ciri or return to Aretuza? Each choice branches out into a set of possible outcomes.

If Yennefer stays with Ciri, the potential outcomes could be:

  1. Ciri remains safe, and they manage to escape.

  2. They encounter more threats, but Yennefer protects Ciri.

  3. They face overwhelming odds, leading to both of their captures.

On the other hand, if Yennefer decides to return to Aretuza, she faces these potential scenarios:

  1. She manages to save Tissaia, survives the battle, and reunites with Ciri later.

  2. She saves Tissaia, but either or both of them fall in the ensuing conflict.

  3. She fails to save Tissaia, and the consequences of her absence endanger Ciri.

Yennefer chose the latter path, setting off a new series of events. As with any decision tree, the choice leads to a cascading effect of possibilities, like dominoes falling in a pattern.

Interestingly, data scientists also use something called 'backtracking' to revert to a previous state in the tree when a decision leads to an undesired outcome. Could Yennefer have employed something similar if she could foresee the consequences of leaving Ciri alone? It is an interesting question to ponder, but alas, the denizens of the Witcher universe do not have the privilege of backtracking their decisions.

Furthermore, in data science, there's a concept called 'pruning' which involves the removal of the branches in a decision tree that make the least impact. If we were to apply pruning to Yennefer's decision tree, the choice to stay with Ciri would likely be the most impactful one, considering Ciri's central role in the overarching narrative and the looming threats around her.

Finally, uncertainty is another common thread tying together decision trees and the dilemma Yennefer faced. In data science, uncertainty is addressed using probability, assigning likelihoods to each potential outcome. However, in the tumultuous world of the Witcher, Yennefer can't quantify the uncertainty she faces. Yet, like any good decision-maker, she uses her best judgement in a high-stakes situation, weighing the immediate danger to Tissaia against potential threats to Ciri.

In summary, while it might initially seem strange to view a Witcher episode through the lens of data science, the decision tree framework provides a unique perspective. It allows us to visualize the complex interplay of choices and consequences faced by Yennefer. It offers an understanding of her dilemma, while also underlining that whether in the real world or in a fantastical universe, the choices we make can have far-reaching implications, often beyond our immediate perception.

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