Why did the MiG-23 crash over Michigan? 8 Potential Theories

The recent crash of a MiG-23 during the Thunder Over Michigan air show has left many speculating about the potential causes behind the incident. While the sudden nature of the crash, combined with the visible bursts of flames, suggests a mechanical or system failure, several theories have emerged. Given the age of the MiG-23 and its complex systems, a combination of factors, such as engine issues exacerbated by a hydraulic or instrument malfunction, could be the cause. However, it's essential to await the findings of the official investigation to determine the exact cause of this unfortunate incident. In this article, we'll evaluate the evidence supporting and refuting the first eight theories.

Engine Failure: The MiG-23, being an older model aircraft, might be more susceptible to wear and tear, especially in critical components like the engine. The video footage showing "two short bursts of flames" could be indicative of an engine malfunction or explosion. However, regular maintenance and checks, especially before an air show, would likely have identified potential engine issues. Moreover, engine failures are relatively rare, especially without prior warning signs.

Hydraulic System Malfunction: A hydraulic failure can lead to a loss of control, making it a plausible cause for the crash. Older aircraft might have aging hydraulic systems that are more prone to failure. On the other hand, redundancies are typically built into hydraulic systems to prevent total failure. Regular maintenance checks would likely identify potential hydraulic issues.

Fuel Starvation: Fuel starvation can occur if there's a blockage or leak, causing the engine to be starved of fuel, leading to a crash. Such an event can occur suddenly, aligning with the rapid descent of the aircraft. However, pilots typically monitor fuel levels and systems closely, especially during performances. Modern fuel systems also have multiple safeguards to prevent starvation.

Structural Integrity: The stresses of air show performances can exacerbate any structural weaknesses in an aircraft. The age of the MiG-23 might mean it has undergone significant wear and tear. However, aircraft meant for air shows typically undergo rigorous checks to ensure structural integrity, and there was no mention of visible structural issues before the crash.

Instrument Malfunction: Instrument malfunctions can feed incorrect information to the pilot, leading to mishaps. Older aircraft might have outdated instruments more prone to failure. Yet, most pilots, especially experienced ones like Dan Filer, are trained to fly using visual references if instruments fail. Redundancies are often built into instrument systems to prevent total failure.

Pilot Error: Human error is a common factor in many aviation incidents. The pressures of an air show performance can increase the likelihood of mistakes. However, Dan Filer is a retired Navy pilot with extensive experience, making significant errors less likely. The sudden nature of the crash suggests a mechanical or system failure rather than pilot error.

External Factors: Birds, drones, or other external factors can suddenly interfere with an aircraft's operation. Such factors can be unpredictable and hard to avoid, especially during a performance. However, there was no mention of any external interference during the initial reports of the crash. Air shows typically have strict controls to prevent drone flights and monitor for bird activity.

Maintenance Oversight: Overlooking a critical maintenance task can lead to system or component failures. Given the aircraft's age, it might require more frequent or specialized maintenance. Nevertheless, aircraft used in air shows typically undergo rigorous pre-show checks, and maintenance oversights, while possible, are less likely in professionally managed air show aircraft.